I think people should not be so obsessed with this, of course they are not serious terms. In reality they haven’t event changed from the one that were rejected. They aren’t even terms, just capitulation. There is nothing there.
But people are dying. Still better to have a line of discussion then not.
The discussion is only continued to show Trump that russia is not serious about peace.
russia would need to end the war fairy soon, but at this point in time they still feel like they can do more, thus negotiations are delayed and met with unserious demands – many of which Trump just didn’t understand lmao, like this whole discussion about EU troops in Ukraine after ceasefire, but russia meant “russian & chinese troops, and only if russia agrees” kind of deal, mentioning old 2022 “negotiations”.
Trump does that a lot, he gets in the news, gets “the deal”, what happens later when they start to correct him is no longer first page news and he can say they went back on the deal. And sometimes everyone just goes with it. Not sure if it’s strategy, his narcissism or stupidity/dementia.
But like you said, Russia feel like they can do more and it seems they can. Large scale drone attacks are getting bigger and bigger and Ukrainian casualties are getting bigger and bigger. They are unable to defend, I doubt any western weapon can do that right now, even if they get a few more patriots and irises.
Russia has some marginal success also on the battlefield.
It’s not a good situation. Might be years before Russian economy starts to hurt enough for them to think of an end to this, if at all.
Correct on threat assessment, but it’s not about drone attacks only. Ukraine is better at finding out some new solutions (action from businesses + volunteers + low rank combatants), russia is better at copying success and scaling on a system level (government vertical works faster).
Recent success on the battlefield is them scaling anti-pilot measures. Recent success denial is collaboration between the best Ukrainian battalions.
But I disagree on economic assessment. Point of economy getting shredded is close. I’d say something is highly likely to happen in a span of a year. It would be faster if USA did play their role and sanction oil/gas, like the thing they stated to with India (which EU did, but USA frozen for now).
After all, russia isn’t limitless. It’s their core strategy to make themselves look like so. They had deep reserves of artillery, tanks, currency+gold, aviation, fleet - all of this is getting thinner. Like they rarely use tanks today. But you can’t do the same with money.
Mostly I agree. But on the material side, like you said, they aren’t using tanks anymore, just infantry, because that works for them. They are burning through their soldiers and their salaries, but they have a lot more. I have no way to judge it, but I’ve mostly heard they are fine for maybe two years. But after that they can do another selective mobilization that will be enough for another year and so on. We can’t rely on them running out of anything. Same with the drones, they will build more and more faster. I don’t see a way to stop that, even with Ukrainian long-range drones. You can’t stop 1000 drones/day each at another apartment building.
Not to mention Ukraine has its own issues, not only with material, but recruiting as well.
It’s pretty bleak.
Maybe if the Americans sanctions did something. If the west gave Ukraine the good weapons and ramped up drone production and developed done fantastic anti-drone protection…
But west IS ramping up Ukrainian drone production, it’s called “Danish model” and lots of EU countries joined it (mostly those who have no aspirations in their own MIC).
It’s not 1k drones a day and I doubt it ever will be. Currently they do 500 but that’s not daily, that’s accumulation/discharge. And Ukraine is taking down the most of them - which still means like 10-20 hit the targets per wave.
But I mean, it’s not one-sided thing and stuff burns in russia too. Ukrainian long-range capabilities are better than ever. So many events that would sound groundbreaking in 2022 are just another Friday.
I’m always sceptical of EU programs. Usually they start a few years later after all the documentation is finally approved, then the licenses and planning for a year and the first products come another year after. 🙄
Didn’t know if danish model, I’ll look it up.
Regarding Russia, I think they could step up production. They could get to a point where they launch 1000 a day in a year or two. It’s possible, they are really into this war. And there is no internal descent.
You think it’s possible to do so much damage with precision strikes, to cripple Russias drone production.
They have been striking oil refineries for a while now and I didn’t see any credible resources about how much effect that actually had.
Yeah, that’s fair. What I’m clumsily trying to say is actually optimistic - that if things were going better for Russia, they would be further west and there’d be no talk of peace, even on ludicrous terms.
And in cold calculus knowing full well it prolongs the suffering of innocents - if this was a board game, the smart thing to do might be to keep fighting and letting Russian hubris bleed itself to death. It kind of makes you think North Vietnam’s strategy against the U.S. is the way to go. Keep bleeding them until they decide it’s no longer militarily possible or politically worthwhile to keep fighting. Anything less than that ensures Russia will try again the first second they’re able.
I think people should not be so obsessed with this, of course they are not serious terms. In reality they haven’t event changed from the one that were rejected. They aren’t even terms, just capitulation. There is nothing there.
But people are dying. Still better to have a line of discussion then not.
The discussion is only continued to show Trump that russia is not serious about peace.
russia would need to end the war fairy soon, but at this point in time they still feel like they can do more, thus negotiations are delayed and met with unserious demands – many of which Trump just didn’t understand lmao, like this whole discussion about EU troops in Ukraine after ceasefire, but russia meant “russian & chinese troops, and only if russia agrees” kind of deal, mentioning old 2022 “negotiations”.
Trump does that a lot, he gets in the news, gets “the deal”, what happens later when they start to correct him is no longer first page news and he can say they went back on the deal. And sometimes everyone just goes with it. Not sure if it’s strategy, his narcissism or stupidity/dementia.
But like you said, Russia feel like they can do more and it seems they can. Large scale drone attacks are getting bigger and bigger and Ukrainian casualties are getting bigger and bigger. They are unable to defend, I doubt any western weapon can do that right now, even if they get a few more patriots and irises. Russia has some marginal success also on the battlefield.
It’s not a good situation. Might be years before Russian economy starts to hurt enough for them to think of an end to this, if at all.
Correct on threat assessment, but it’s not about drone attacks only. Ukraine is better at finding out some new solutions (action from businesses + volunteers + low rank combatants), russia is better at copying success and scaling on a system level (government vertical works faster).
Recent success on the battlefield is them scaling anti-pilot measures. Recent success denial is collaboration between the best Ukrainian battalions.
But I disagree on economic assessment. Point of economy getting shredded is close. I’d say something is highly likely to happen in a span of a year. It would be faster if USA did play their role and sanction oil/gas, like the thing they stated to with India (which EU did, but USA frozen for now).
After all, russia isn’t limitless. It’s their core strategy to make themselves look like so. They had deep reserves of artillery, tanks, currency+gold, aviation, fleet - all of this is getting thinner. Like they rarely use tanks today. But you can’t do the same with money.
Mostly I agree. But on the material side, like you said, they aren’t using tanks anymore, just infantry, because that works for them. They are burning through their soldiers and their salaries, but they have a lot more. I have no way to judge it, but I’ve mostly heard they are fine for maybe two years. But after that they can do another selective mobilization that will be enough for another year and so on. We can’t rely on them running out of anything. Same with the drones, they will build more and more faster. I don’t see a way to stop that, even with Ukrainian long-range drones. You can’t stop 1000 drones/day each at another apartment building.
Not to mention Ukraine has its own issues, not only with material, but recruiting as well. It’s pretty bleak.
Maybe if the Americans sanctions did something. If the west gave Ukraine the good weapons and ramped up drone production and developed done fantastic anti-drone protection…
But west IS ramping up Ukrainian drone production, it’s called “Danish model” and lots of EU countries joined it (mostly those who have no aspirations in their own MIC).
It’s not 1k drones a day and I doubt it ever will be. Currently they do 500 but that’s not daily, that’s accumulation/discharge. And Ukraine is taking down the most of them - which still means like 10-20 hit the targets per wave.
But I mean, it’s not one-sided thing and stuff burns in russia too. Ukrainian long-range capabilities are better than ever. So many events that would sound groundbreaking in 2022 are just another Friday.
I’m always sceptical of EU programs. Usually they start a few years later after all the documentation is finally approved, then the licenses and planning for a year and the first products come another year after. 🙄 Didn’t know if danish model, I’ll look it up.
Regarding Russia, I think they could step up production. They could get to a point where they launch 1000 a day in a year or two. It’s possible, they are really into this war. And there is no internal descent.
You think it’s possible to do so much damage with precision strikes, to cripple Russias drone production. They have been striking oil refineries for a while now and I didn’t see any credible resources about how much effect that actually had.
Seen just recently - petroleum crisis
https://t.me/ShrikeNews/24768
https://t.me/ShrikeNews/24772
Except that, every hit like that is another cut that cripples economy. The most effective action of “Just Stop Oil” campaign by so far.
I’m just not very optimistic. To many people have predicted that Russia would crumble and they did remarkably well.
Yeah, that’s fair. What I’m clumsily trying to say is actually optimistic - that if things were going better for Russia, they would be further west and there’d be no talk of peace, even on ludicrous terms.
And in cold calculus knowing full well it prolongs the suffering of innocents - if this was a board game, the smart thing to do might be to keep fighting and letting Russian hubris bleed itself to death. It kind of makes you think North Vietnam’s strategy against the U.S. is the way to go. Keep bleeding them until they decide it’s no longer militarily possible or politically worthwhile to keep fighting. Anything less than that ensures Russia will try again the first second they’re able.