Correct on threat assessment, but it’s not about drone attacks only. Ukraine is better at finding out some new solutions (action from businesses + volunteers + low rank combatants), russia is better at copying success and scaling on a system level (government vertical works faster).
Recent success on the battlefield is them scaling anti-pilot measures. Recent success denial is collaboration between the best Ukrainian battalions.
But I disagree on economic assessment. Point of economy getting shredded is close. I’d say something is highly likely to happen in a span of a year. It would be faster if USA did play their role and sanction oil/gas, like the thing they stated to with India (which EU did, but USA frozen for now).
After all, russia isn’t limitless. It’s their core strategy to make themselves look like so. They had deep reserves of artillery, tanks, currency+gold, aviation, fleet - all of this is getting thinner. Like they rarely use tanks today. But you can’t do the same with money.
Mostly I agree. But on the material side, like you said, they aren’t using tanks anymore, just infantry, because that works for them. They are burning through their soldiers and their salaries, but they have a lot more. I have no way to judge it, but I’ve mostly heard they are fine for maybe two years. But after that they can do another selective mobilization that will be enough for another year and so on. We can’t rely on them running out of anything. Same with the drones, they will build more and more faster. I don’t see a way to stop that, even with Ukrainian long-range drones. You can’t stop 1000 drones/day each at another apartment building.
Not to mention Ukraine has its own issues, not only with material, but recruiting as well.
It’s pretty bleak.
Maybe if the Americans sanctions did something. If the west gave Ukraine the good weapons and ramped up drone production and developed done fantastic anti-drone protection…
But west IS ramping up Ukrainian drone production, it’s called “Danish model” and lots of EU countries joined it (mostly those who have no aspirations in their own MIC).
It’s not 1k drones a day and I doubt it ever will be. Currently they do 500 but that’s not daily, that’s accumulation/discharge. And Ukraine is taking down the most of them - which still means like 10-20 hit the targets per wave.
But I mean, it’s not one-sided thing and stuff burns in russia too. Ukrainian long-range capabilities are better than ever. So many events that would sound groundbreaking in 2022 are just another Friday.
I’m always sceptical of EU programs. Usually they start a few years later after all the documentation is finally approved, then the licenses and planning for a year and the first products come another year after. 🙄
Didn’t know if danish model, I’ll look it up.
Regarding Russia, I think they could step up production. They could get to a point where they launch 1000 a day in a year or two. It’s possible, they are really into this war. And there is no internal descent.
You think it’s possible to do so much damage with precision strikes, to cripple Russias drone production.
They have been striking oil refineries for a while now and I didn’t see any credible resources about how much effect that actually had.
Correct on threat assessment, but it’s not about drone attacks only. Ukraine is better at finding out some new solutions (action from businesses + volunteers + low rank combatants), russia is better at copying success and scaling on a system level (government vertical works faster).
Recent success on the battlefield is them scaling anti-pilot measures. Recent success denial is collaboration between the best Ukrainian battalions.
But I disagree on economic assessment. Point of economy getting shredded is close. I’d say something is highly likely to happen in a span of a year. It would be faster if USA did play their role and sanction oil/gas, like the thing they stated to with India (which EU did, but USA frozen for now).
After all, russia isn’t limitless. It’s their core strategy to make themselves look like so. They had deep reserves of artillery, tanks, currency+gold, aviation, fleet - all of this is getting thinner. Like they rarely use tanks today. But you can’t do the same with money.
Mostly I agree. But on the material side, like you said, they aren’t using tanks anymore, just infantry, because that works for them. They are burning through their soldiers and their salaries, but they have a lot more. I have no way to judge it, but I’ve mostly heard they are fine for maybe two years. But after that they can do another selective mobilization that will be enough for another year and so on. We can’t rely on them running out of anything. Same with the drones, they will build more and more faster. I don’t see a way to stop that, even with Ukrainian long-range drones. You can’t stop 1000 drones/day each at another apartment building.
Not to mention Ukraine has its own issues, not only with material, but recruiting as well. It’s pretty bleak.
Maybe if the Americans sanctions did something. If the west gave Ukraine the good weapons and ramped up drone production and developed done fantastic anti-drone protection…
But west IS ramping up Ukrainian drone production, it’s called “Danish model” and lots of EU countries joined it (mostly those who have no aspirations in their own MIC).
It’s not 1k drones a day and I doubt it ever will be. Currently they do 500 but that’s not daily, that’s accumulation/discharge. And Ukraine is taking down the most of them - which still means like 10-20 hit the targets per wave.
But I mean, it’s not one-sided thing and stuff burns in russia too. Ukrainian long-range capabilities are better than ever. So many events that would sound groundbreaking in 2022 are just another Friday.
I’m always sceptical of EU programs. Usually they start a few years later after all the documentation is finally approved, then the licenses and planning for a year and the first products come another year after. 🙄 Didn’t know if danish model, I’ll look it up.
Regarding Russia, I think they could step up production. They could get to a point where they launch 1000 a day in a year or two. It’s possible, they are really into this war. And there is no internal descent.
You think it’s possible to do so much damage with precision strikes, to cripple Russias drone production. They have been striking oil refineries for a while now and I didn’t see any credible resources about how much effect that actually had.
Seen just recently - petroleum crisis
https://t.me/ShrikeNews/24768
https://t.me/ShrikeNews/24772
Except that, every hit like that is another cut that cripples economy. The most effective action of “Just Stop Oil” campaign by so far.
I’m just not very optimistic. To many people have predicted that Russia would crumble and they did remarkably well.