• DeceasedPassenger@lemmy.world
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    2 days ago

    Russia has used pretty much everything in the tank at this point.

    I’m genuinely curious if you have sources to back this, because I want it to be true, but I also feel like I’ve been hearing it for two years. Makes me feel bleak about the truth of the statement. I would love to see a light at the end of the tunnel, if you have one.

    • Valmond@lemmy.world
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      2 days ago

      I’ve heard the tank running out summer 2025 since I guess late 2023.

      Check out perun and those who count tanks and more in russian storage from satellite images if you’re interested.

      Just a nitpick: they are never running out totally, they can make a handfull of tanks a month (some new, some refurbished from the last ones in a very bad condition), I have heard number around one or two a day.

      The russian economy is also similar, their wealth fund is some months from running out (this year), and Ukraine sanctions oil refineries quite heavily, but they’ll never totally run out, it’s just going to get worse and worse and worse.

      We just have to stay with Ukraine, and it’ll be a win.

      Slava Ukraine!

    • scholar@lemmy.world
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      2 days ago

      Russia had large reserves of money at the start of the war which allowed them to ride out the initial sanctions. They also massively pivoted their econony to produce military equipment because of the amount of equipment they were losing. Neither of those are sustainable for long and the only cards they have left are (greatly discounted) oil sales to China and India, and conscription (which would be incredibly unpopular) which is why they have been using North Korean soldiers.

      All of this is like a hole in Russia’s fuel tank, which would be ok if they could finish the war quickly, but their advance has been so slow that the frontlines are mere kilometers from where they were two years ago and if this doesn’t change they will run out of steam and be unable to continue.

      • realitista@lemmus.org
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        2 days ago

        That and Ukraine is literally blowing up their fuel tanks and fuel lines at an unprecedented rate, greatly reducing the revenue of the country.

          • realitista@lemmus.org
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            2 days ago

            They are saving democracy and the rule of law in all of Europe. If anyone should be in the EU and NATO it should be them. I hope to see if in my lifetime.

      • DeceasedPassenger@lemmy.world
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        2 days ago

        That does make a lot of sense, I guess I ‘knew’ those things but didn’t quite put it together. Yeah I can’t imagine conscription would cause anything except some sort of internal uprising, seen plenty of stories about existing recruits clearly having zero desire to be there/realizing they’re the aggressor and not defending their homeland. Hoping their zero-steam day comes sooner rather than later. Thank you for the summary.

      • DSN9@lemmy.ml
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        2 days ago

        It won’t surprise me when the Russian line collapses or Putin is suddenly dead. When, not if.

    • realitista@lemmus.org
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      1 day ago

      You’d need to go to many sources. But also remember that these kind of things happen “slowly at first, then all at once”. There’s no way to tell whether it will be tomorrow or in 2 years but the signs are all there, same as during the fall of the Soviet Union which took everyone by surprise though the signs were there.

      Watch some videos from covert cabal about military stockpiles. Read about Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, true inflation rate, bankrupcy rates, bank withdrawal laws and other monetary protections (money expatriation, etc), oil export restrictions, oil rationing within Russia, Putin’s theft from the private sector, and rate of printing money.

      I wish I could give you one source for all of this, but I spend probably 1-2 hours every day getting updates on the war and it comes from everywhere. Here are a couple videos to start:

      https://youtu.be/Go8Qm2X3Jx0

      https://youtu.be/_EHpGXbOrY8

      https://youtu.be/K8CcuVCDEUw

      • DeceasedPassenger@lemmy.world
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        2 days ago

        Thank you, I appreciate the starting point. Makes sense it would be hard to precisely predict.

        edit: I definitely prefer multiple sources anyway, no worries there.

        • realitista@lemmus.org
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          2 days ago

          I chose those videos because usually they cite their sources. But I can send you tons more if you want.

      • chloroken@lemmy.ml
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        2 days ago

        “Do you have any sources for your claim that Russia is collapsing?”

        “Well, here are some YouTube videos…”

        US liberals have less than zero geopolitical self-awareness.

        • realitista@lemmus.org
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          2 days ago

          I’ve read literally thousands of articles on this particular subject. I’m not going to write him a thesis paper. I chose those videos because they tend to cite their sources and can be a good jumping off point.

          • chloroken@lemmy.ml
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            1 day ago

            When asked for a source, you link to YouTube videos that “tend to cite their sources”?

            Also, can you describe what a “thesis paper” is to your understanding?

          • realitista@lemmus.org
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            1 day ago

            Just another .ml tankie butthurt about Russia slowly going under. TBF I’m not sure the connection between modern Russia and communism, but somehow they still shill for them, probably because they all a big troll farm for the CCP.

            • chloroken@lemmy.ml
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              1 day ago

              Hi. I’m an American. Does that surprise you?

              And, Russia isn’t slowly going under. You’re confused and easily motivated by propaganda.