While Democratic leaders insist they won’t surrender in the face of Republican aggression, they are largely out of ammo. Democrats worked every angle in their seven states in 2021. In Illinois they took 14 of the state’s 17 congressional seats, claiming 82 percent of the seats despite winning just 52.7 percent of the two-party vote. Maryland Democrats crafted a map that yields them seven of eight seats, and the party awarded itself bonuses in Oregon and New Mexico and maximized its advantage in Nevada.
Few opportunities remain. Democrats are stretched thin in Illinois. Experts think there aren’t enough blue votes left to nab another seat there. Maryland courts have already blocked Democrats once from enacting an 8-0 map. A bipartisan commission draws lines in New Jersey; Democrats already control nine of 12 seats in a state that moved 5 percentage points toward Trump in 2024. New York’s state constitution stands in the way of mid-decade redistricting. It probably could not be amended before 2028.
That leaves California. Newsom and the Democratic legislature appear serious about counteracting Texas. The governor has talked openly about placing a ballot initiative before voters this fall that would pause the state’s independent redistricting commission and allow the legislature to match the Lone Star State’s aggressive norm-busting.
It’s not an easy path. But assume that it makes the ballot with two-thirds support in the legislature, wins approval from voters even though Republicans and independents outnumber Democrats, and then is upheld by the courts. Democrats already hold 43 of 52 seats from California. Even the most aggressive gerrymander, most Democrats concede, might push them to 48 wins.
That’s five seats – and would even the score with Texas. Except Republicans wouldn’t stop there. Ohio must redraw its maps this fall, and two ultra-competitive seats held by Democrats will be in the crosshairs. Missouri lawmakers have said they intend to nab an additional seat in Kansas City. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida has said he is “very seriously” looking at a redraw there that could jeopardize three South Florida Democrats and two others in Orlando and Tampa. Indiana and North Carolina could follow. Kansas, Kentucky and New Hampshire appear less interested, but if Trump brings pressure, few in his party resist.
Place two from Ohio, two more in Florida, and one each from Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina in the GOP column, and you begin to see the Democrats’ problem. If Democrats are serious about all-out war, they’d also have to unravel commissions in Colorado and Washington. Good luck with that.
…
None of this sounds fair, or maybe even satisfactory. But it’s the painful consequence of the Democrats’ falling asleep in 2010 and surrendering state legislatures to Republicans, failing to focus on the Supreme Court with the GOP’s single-mindedness, and protecting the filibuster over reform in 2021, when Democrats held trifecta power. Fighting back will require many electoral cycles.
Archived at https://archive.is/RW979
Doesnt matter. This is clearly not a democracy anymore. In a democracy you wouldn’t need to do this and legislatures that care about the efficacy of their government would make this impossible by defining what a district is clearly, what parameters constitute their shape and size, and making districts would be like solving math problems instead of drawing shitty art in 1st grade. Its time to kick all of your representatives in the nuts, general strike, and replace literally everyone in both parties, and make 2 more parties. Fuck this shit.
Oh fuck all the way off with this.
Play the game you bunch of morons.
Personally I think the solution is burning the board but it’s certainly better than playing blindfolded and calling it standards.
Gerrymandering is wrong. The only way to stop it is for democrats to gerrymander the living fuck out of every blue state. The supreme court would find a way to outlaw it in a New York minute.
If we’re still just abiding by supreme court rulings and don’t have a plan to neutralize their influence all this talk is completely pointless, the supreme court will uphold Texas’s maps and strike down California’s if they think that will help Republicans hold on to the house, regardless of law and facts.
But the more immediate issue is that they don’t need to because we don’t have enough blue states to make this a guaranteed kill shot on Republican power and blue state governors talking about gerrymandering their states will damage the party’s brand in purple districts in other states, so this is ineffective at best and more likely a real step backwards
Yeah. Good point. I been a cockeyed optimist all my life. Sigh…
Aw well fuck, I guess you’re right.
Ok boys, we can’t stop them at the SCOTUS, we can’t stop them at the Federal level, might as well pack it in, cause gerrymandering is just the wrong thing to do.
We’ll let Schumer write another sternly written letter, maybe it’ll work this time.
/s
we can’t stop them at the SCOTUS
Wrong
we can’t stop them at the Federal level
Wrong
cause gerrymandering is just the wrong thing to do.
Wrong, cause gerrymandering won’t work because we don’t have enough states to gerrymander. I respect the intentions behind it but it is a bad strategy.
We can still do it to at least try and offset some of the damage done in Texas, etc.
Offsetting some of the damage has zero practical effect with these Republicans, we need to cancel it out entirely. If they have even a one vote margin in the House they will shove the craziest legislation through with it.
The better strategy at this point is to draw a clear and simple distinction that the everyone can easily understand - the Democratic party doesn’t redistrict without a new census and they don’t ever say they’re drawing districts just to disadvantage political opponents, that’s something only illegitimate tyrants do. Besides the messaging, do whatever is necessary to keep Texas and the other states from pushing their redistricting forward (e.g. don’t let the Texas state house get a quorum again).
Keep hammering that simple message, then as soon as we get any kind of majority in the House and get to set the rules there we will be well positioned to say “Anybody elected through a mid-census redistricting is illegitimate and will not be seated as a lawmaker in this House” and throw these fascist dipshits from Texas and Florida and Ohio and wherever else out on the steps without making the average person who doesn’t follow politics that closely clutch their pearls over it.
If you’re playing chess with a guy who changes the board when they think you’re not looking and keep playing chess like nothing is happening, your feckless naivity is going to keep being taken advantage of. In this context you can’t not play the game, and playing fair is catastrophically suicidally stupid, so you have to get dirty too. If you dont you fucking lose and you deserve it too.
also, your high road strategy seems to be relying on these guys to like, stop cheating? “don’t let the Texas state house get a quorum again,” buddy wake up: they sicced the fbi on them. wtf are you gonna do even as a state representative when 20 fbi agents knock on your door and say you’re coming with me. “throw these fascist dipshits from Texas and Florida and Ohio and wherever else out on the steps” be fucking serious.
in my opinion, it’s pretty obvious you came to the conclusion first and are reasoning backwards to justify the conclusion you already reached. you think we wanna use the obvious cheating method? we don’t, but it’s war. we ought to do whatever it takes to survive and worry about cleaning up the mess we know we’re about to make later.
edit: and if you want to retain a moral superiority over your enemy, and I see no reason why you shouldn’t, then include a clause in your gerrymandering legislation to the effect that it will automatically become null and revert to a fair redistricting committee when federal law is established to prevent gerrymandering at all.
If the state police of California/New York/Illinois/etc. allow 20 FBI agents to get close enough to my door to knock on it I’m already screwed, but I would probably try to shout out a few clever insults before those agents break my jaw or whatever
the Democratic party doesn’t redistrict without a new census and they don’t ever say they’re drawing districts just to disadvantage political opponents, that’s something only illegitimate tyrants do
Too bad republicans like illegitimate tyrants and enjoy cheating so they can win.
The better strategy at this point is to draw a clear and simple distinction that the everyone can easily understand - the Democratic party doesn’t redistrict without a new census and they don’t ever say they’re drawing districts just to disadvantage…
Hello, I’m the average voter, and I just fell asleep when you said “mid-census redistricting” and something about tyrants.
This is a losing strategy. The other strategy is probably also a losing strategy, but at least it’s going down swinging. The single greatest thing Democrats could do to get people in a voting booth is run on an anti-corruption, progressive economic agenda and show some backbone.
Ok, now try to tell your average voter why gerrymandering is good actually, I’m sure they’ll be receptive to that message /s
The single greatest thing Democrats could do to get people in a voting booth is run on an anti-corruption, progressive economic agenda and show some backbone.
Completely agreed, but this isn’t that, this is using Republican misbehavior in other states to ruin their own states in a way that won’t even get us the house and will be a drag on other races outside of their states
I’m saying they don’t reward or punish it because they’re too apathetic to care, so you might as well do everything you can to resist authoritarianism.
Partisans do pay attention and see this as putting up a fight. And turning out your base is the most important thing you can do in a mid-cycle election.
Wrong, cause gerrymandering won’t work because we don’t have enough states to gerrymander. I respect the intentions behind it but it is a bad strategy.
And why wouldn’t we at least cancel out as much of the Republican gerrymander as possible? I think I found the Republican.
Oh yeah, I’m sure if we get them down from a 5 vote margin to a 2 vote margin that will actually make a difference and Republicans will behave better /s
Elections still matter. And you’re arguing to make is harder for Democrats to win the House. Ultimately this is because you don’t want Democrats to win the House.
we can’t stop them at the SCOTUS
Wrong
Do tell.
we can’t stop them at the Federal level
Wrong
Again, do tell. Just saying “Wrong” is taking the Trump ‘Fale news’ approach. Back up your argument.
cause gerrymandering is just the wrong thing to do.
Wrong, cause gerrymandering won’t work because we don’t have enough states to gerrymander. I respect the intentions behind it but it is a bad strategy.
Again, what’s the strategy?
I’ve said for years now that getting people to vote at the local levels is what’ll change things, the Texas level of gerrymandering breaks even that…
Remember folks, every vote counts. We did this to ourselves.
I’ve said it before elsewhere but it needs to be heard…
It’s just wild to me continually seeing posts not understanding how this all works, and how it would play out. It’s like the people who thought China paid the tariffs…
The house is almost tied. That’s who passes bills, handles impeachments, some of the most powerful committees are, and who impeaches Presidents…
218 Republicans, 213 Democrats.
Let’s see, take New York for example.
26 representatives total, 19 Democrat and 7 Republican.
5 of those were within 2 points last time their seat was up.
People who think that New York is blue, their vote doesn’t matter, skips the votes for the House and Senate and end up losing a Blue house seat but later complain that nothing changes are literally the fucking problem.
Every. Fucking. State. Is. Like. This.
Apathetic morons who don’t realize that the president is only held accountable by the other branch of government then wave their hands around when they did jack shit to help put people in place to, are the fucking problem.
District 3 of California was lost by 24,000 votes. District 22 was lost by 3,000.
Those two seats in the house, along with the close ones in New York, Jersey, Michigan, Illinois, Washington, hell every state… Are what makes the House of Representatives or breaks it.
So, if you think that your vote for president doesn’t matter, so you skip voting and let these other seats slip, yes, you’re a fucking moron who can’t grasp basic concepts of government that are taught in 4th grade.
And don’t get me started on the State House/Senates, how they define voting laws and voting zones and engage in gerrymandering.
Every fucking vote counts.
And until the country realizes it, and starts acting on it, we’ll keep getting the shit we deserve.
House needs a simple majority, and two thirds of the Senate.
Democrats would need ~18 seats.
First, that won’t happen in 2026.
Even the best cases make it hard to win enough by 2028. Which is why impeachment is just not something we can hold out for.
Gerrymandering is part of why this is a problem, which is done at the local level, and again why every vote counts.
How could it play out? Assuming some absurdly weird upside down world just opposite of what we’re living in, this is the only path just looking at the numbers…
Again, Democrats would need to gain 18 net seats. Seats Potentially in Play (Republican Incumbents): This requires looking at seats up in upcoming cycles.
- Class 1 Seats (Up in 2026):
- Highly Competitive Targets: These would be the first priority. States where Democrats have won statewide recently or that lean only slightly Republican. Examples based on recent political history might include:
- North Carolina (Budd-R)
- Alaska (Sullivan-R) - Unique dynamics with ranked-choice voting.
- Stretch Targets: States that are more Republican but could potentially flip under exceptionally favorable conditions (like the hypothetical turnout).
- Iowa (Ernst-R)
- Montana (Daines-R) - Depends heavily on candidate matchups.
- Kentucky (McConnell-R’s seat - potential retirement changes dynamics)
- Kansas (Marshall-R)
- South Carolina (Graham-R)
- Very Difficult Targets: Solidly Republican states requiring overwhelming Democratic turnout and significant shifts among other voters.
- Texas (Cornyn-R)
- Mississippi (Wicker-R)
- Alabama (Tuberville-R)
- West Virginia (Capito-R)
- Oklahoma (Mullin-R - Special election winner)
- Wyoming (Lummis-R)
- Idaho (Risch-R)
- Arkansas (Cotton-R)
- Nebraska (Ricketts-R)
- South Dakota (Rounds-R)
- Louisiana (Cassidy-R) - Jungle primary system.
- Highly Competitive Targets: These would be the first priority. States where Democrats have won statewide recently or that lean only slightly Republican. Examples based on recent political history might include:
- Class 2 Seats (Up in 2028): (Looking further ahead)
- Highly Competitive Targets:
- Maine (Collins-R) - Often competitive, depends on matchup.
- Georgia (Perdue/Ossoff dynamic showed competitiveness, depends who holds it after '26 potentially) - Assuming GOP holds a seat here.
- Stretch Targets:
- Michigan (Peters-D currently, but listing potential GOP flips back if one happened hypothetically before 2028) - Generally leans D, but could be contested.
- New Hampshire (Shaheen-D currently) - Generally leans D, but listing potential GOP flips back.
- Very Difficult Targets: (Many solidly Republican states)
- Tennessee (Hagerty-R)
- Alaska (Murkowski-R historically, depends on dynamics)
- North Carolina (Tillis-R)
- Iowa (Grassley-R seat potentially)
- Texas (Cruz-R)
- Kentucky (Paul-R)
- And many others similar to the 2026 list (SC, AL, MS, WY, ID, NE, SD, KS, WV, OK).
- Highly Competitive Targets:
It’s going to take an absolutely historic level of pain to both drive enough people to vote MAGA out to make this change though.
The amount that’s being excused, sanewashed, and just drowned out with other absurdities…
We’re on all on this shit ride until some new wildcard comes into play.
No impeachment, no Supreme Court, no guardrail is going to change that.
Something new and unaccounted for is the only feasible catalyst.
- Class 1 Seats (Up in 2026):
Never take the high road against fascists. Fight hard and dirty.
Agreed, but this particular road is a dead end
Ohio has anti gerrymandering laws in its constitution. Of course the Supreme Court of ohio only wags its finger when the state legislature flagrantly violates that
The underlying thread in this is not voting districts; it’s propaganda from every media orifice available. Unless you know how to read beyond an eighth grade level, and do so, you’re getting firehosed with sugar-coated turds all day long.
And that’s how republiQans get long lines of “the poorly educated” to show up and vote.
The left does not have that problem. They get all the rest though.
In light of this, pursuing a strategy that’s going to justify Republicans’ efforts to do the same but that won’t get us enough seats to take a majority in the House seems like a really bad idea
Wow great point. Let’s just make sure that a party of evil child raping traitors stays in charge perpetually. We would hate to use their own tactics against them. Like when those pesky colonists started using guerilla tactics, and the British still just stood there in formation getting slaughtered. Yeah that’s what we should be doing /s
This is not a case of Democrats “using their own tactics against them”, this is a case of both sides using a particular tactic, as both sides always have.
I’m not sure that’s the point of the story, but I may be wrong. What I got from it is that the Democratic party has already gerrimanderd basically everywhere they could, leaving few other places to manipulate to counter the Republican effort in Texas (and other states).
I voted, and not for Trump, but I think it’s fair to say that both major parties screw around with districting to enhance their advantage and cement their control over states. It just so happens that the Dems have fewer cards to play in this particularly stupid game.
