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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: July 5th, 2023

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  • It’s overvalued in my market at the moment, (Dallas) majority of properties sitting on the market for over half a year and making several list price reductions. COVID inflated the market a bit too much and it needs to come down… 10-20% would be a fair amount I’d expect it to drop over 2 years.

    But there are a lot of external factors I’m not considering in my estimate: like idiotic tariffs, incompetent leadership at the state level, and a possible demographic shift depending on how people react to immigration reductions (and possibly net emmigration)… I give a significant chance something out of left field will upend the economy 🤷‍♂️. But who knows when the people in charge change their policies every other day and then insist their new opinion has always been their super secret plan all along…








  • Borrowing will become more expensive, and we can’t just stop spending to stop borrowing. Much of the current debt is in short term positions that regularly get re-issued. The cost of issuing new short term debts just to replace the current ones coming due will increase even if spending stays the same (or decreases).

    And of course, there’s a huge impact to the dollar’s value internationally if major financial markets shift away from holding US debt. You know the trade deficit Republicans like to rage about … Yeah, it’ll get a lot worse when fewer people want to hold US dollars for the purpose of investing in US bonds.