

It’s a cheap way for russia to distract european attention and put pressure on polish/baltic states logistics and humanity : polish are tired to help ukrainians (see last election in june) so a large influx from refugee will add more tension.
Russia/Belarusia already did that in 2021 with success : https://www.rfi.fr/en/migrants-stranded-on-belarus-border-test-polish-resolve
If Russia send them on frontlines, Russia is the baddy. If EU/Poland rejects migrants, they are the baddies…
Reality is that we don’t have much oil here in Europe it makes no sense to use a ressource we don’t have