We had some nice steady growth up until some months back, probably partially driven by dissatisfaction with Reddit rallying behind Trump and further enshittification of it. But predictably the lions share of users just accepted the new normal as the inertia of leaving is just too high to overcome. For another exodus event there needs to be a bigger shock to the system, probably something like turning off old.reddit.
It definitely will happen. I’ve already noticed I’m sometimes getting weird “your IP is blocked” warnings when using old.reddit. They go away after a refresh but it wouldn’t surprise me if they’re trying to get people to stop using it.