DURHAM, N.H.—Research from the University of New Hampshire reports that in 2024 there were 5.7 million more childless women of prime child-bearing age than expected given prior patterns—a significant jump from 2.1 million in 2016 and 4.7 million in 2022. This shift in fertility patterns has contributed to 11.8 million fewer births than expected in the past 17 years. “Childless rates increased the most among women under 30, where fertility rate declines were also greatest,” said Kenneth Johnson, professor of sociology and senior demographer at UNH’s Carsey School of Public Policy.
But then how do you explain why the within-county trends match both the trends across countries and the historical trends?