US imperialism’s plan to weaken Russia through the Ukraine war and sanctions backfired. Today, Russia’s economy and arms industry has massively strengthened to the point where it is significantly outproducing the combined forces of Europe.
My assessement: economically, Russia is very exhausted. Living conditions over there have objectively worsened. Inflation is so high that countries with a normal-sized police force would experience rioting (Russia has about 4 times more cops per citizens than a normal country, so it doesn’t).
Meanwhile, the weapons industry is of course booming and has gained lots of new knowledge. I’m not sure if the leading country in drone technology is Ukraine or Russia, but others are quite clearly bogged down in bureaucracy or lazy due to no perceived threat. Financing that industry is however close to falling apart.
Considering inflation (the same money is worth less) and the exhaustion of its sovereign wealth fund (saved up oil revenues) and considering that Ukraine is apparently enforcing a ban on oil refining in Russia (13% of refineries down in one month), Russia might have to reduce its military budget next year, despite not wanting to. (It has already reduced most other budget lines.)
Population has been reduced by emigration (those who could bailed out when it started), war deaths (about 1M men considered expendable are now dead or injured) and lack of births (people lack optimism about future). In fact, population data likely haven’t looked so miserable since the 1990-ties, for which reason publicaton of data was reduced.
Ukraine is, of course, experinecing the same kind of misery, but other European countries have enough resources to keep it functioning.
This could drag on for long, but would end if something broke. It would be far better if the agressor broke.
A reality check:
Fuel Shortages Hit Russia’s Far East as Ukrainian Strikes Take Refineries Offline
My assessement: economically, Russia is very exhausted. Living conditions over there have objectively worsened. Inflation is so high that countries with a normal-sized police force would experience rioting (Russia has about 4 times more cops per citizens than a normal country, so it doesn’t).
Meanwhile, the weapons industry is of course booming and has gained lots of new knowledge. I’m not sure if the leading country in drone technology is Ukraine or Russia, but others are quite clearly bogged down in bureaucracy or lazy due to no perceived threat. Financing that industry is however close to falling apart.
Considering inflation (the same money is worth less) and the exhaustion of its sovereign wealth fund (saved up oil revenues) and considering that Ukraine is apparently enforcing a ban on oil refining in Russia (13% of refineries down in one month), Russia might have to reduce its military budget next year, despite not wanting to. (It has already reduced most other budget lines.)
Population has been reduced by emigration (those who could bailed out when it started), war deaths (about 1M men considered expendable are now dead or injured) and lack of births (people lack optimism about future). In fact, population data likely haven’t looked so miserable since the 1990-ties, for which reason publicaton of data was reduced.
Ukraine is, of course, experinecing the same kind of misery, but other European countries have enough resources to keep it functioning.
This could drag on for long, but would end if something broke. It would be far better if the agressor broke.