The EU and Britain outspend Russia on defence – but clunky procurement, high prices and limited production mean Europe is still years away from countering the threat, two prominent think tanks find.

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Researchers from the Brussels-based Bruegel think tank and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy sought to assess when the European Union and the United Kingdom might be prepared to respond to potential Russian aggression by 2030. Multiple Western intelligence reports suggest that Russia might test Europe’s resolve even earlier.

The think tanks previously concluded in September that it would take the bloc several decades to adequately prepare – and in their latest update, released on Thursday, the researchers found that “the situation today is even more concerning”.

That is partly due to a much-weakened US commitment to European security, following Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

But the researchers also found that Russian industry continues to significantly outproduce European factories, despite substantial increases in investment. Military procurement across the EU remains slow, bureaucratic, and focused on relatively expensive weapons systems.

Russia’s military spending reached €130 billion in 2024, or 7.1% of its GDP. While combined EU and UK expenditures exceed that figure, the study found that Russia’s military purchasing power remains comparable.

To deter – or, if necessary, fight – Russia without relying on US support, European production of various weapon systems “must increase by a factor of around five”, the report states. Air defence systems, in particular, would need to multiply even more to match Russian capabilities.

“Europe thus remains highly vulnerable and dependent on the US,” the report states.

The researchers conducted a detailed analysis of military procurement data from Germany, Poland, the UK, and France to understand broader European trends. They found that production still lags, and the volume of military hardware being acquired “remain low compared to Cold War periods or Russian numbers.”

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The EU’s €800 billion ReArm Europe plan, for instance, “will be too small, if equipment is bought at current high prices,” the authors caution.

  • randomname@scribe.disroot.orgEnglish
    81·
    9 days ago

    @Zombie@feddit.uk

    Unless China sides with Russia they haven’t a chance, and China doesn’t seem to have shown any form of intent in that regard. They sell equipment to Russia because there’s money to be made, in the same way they sell equipment to NATO countries.

    Oh, no, this is just as China (and Russia) portray things as part of their propaganda. But it’s false.

    For example, China сuts drone sales to Ukraine and the West but continues supplying Russia.

    China is everything but neutral, and it’s also not just about money as your comment tries to suggest. The government in Beijing pursues its own agenda (and its own agenda only). It goes far beyond Europe.

    According to Chinese state-controlled media outlet South China Morning Post, for example, China’s Xi Jinping kicked off his state visit to Russia in May 2025 by thanking Moscow for supporting Taiwan’s reunification with mainland China.

    In a signed article in Russia’s state-run Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper … [Xi Jinping wrote that Taiwan’s] unification [with China] must be upheld as part of the post-war international order … Celebrating the “enduring friendship” between Moscow and Beijing, he said the two countries had supported each other since World War II …

    Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s aggression against Taiwan are closely linked, at least for China. Beijing wants control over Taiwan (and supposedly over the South China Sea and other neighbouring areas in Asia, including a part of Siberia which is currently Russian territory).

    And there are also Chinese mercenaries fighting for Russia, hired by ads on Chinese social media. Unlike any ‘pro-Western’ content on China’s state-controlled internet, these Russian conscription ads aren’t get censored.

    [Edit typo.]